BSS
  20 Sep 2022, 10:59

Asian markets see rare rally but caution rules as Fed hike nears

 HONG KONG, Sept 20, 2022 (BSS/AFP) - Asian markets enjoyed a much-needed
bounce Tuesday, tracking Wall Street's late rally as investors gird
themselves for another big Federal Reserve interest rate hike this week,
though fears of a recession remain elevated.

Global equities have taken a severe body blow in recent weeks as central
banks struggle to rein in stubbornly high inflation, Russia continues its war
in Ukraine and China's economic woes darken the mood across trading floors.

With the main concern being that sharp increases in borrowing costs will
cause recessions in major economies, this week will be a minefield for
traders with several countries including Britain tipped to announce more
tightening.

The Fed's decision, however, is the main focus after figures last week showed
prices are still rising at rates not seen since the early 1980s.

Most observers expect the bank to announce a third successive 75-basis-point
lift, though there are some who have flagged a possible one-percentage-point
move.

And there is speculation that the rises will not stop until the rate is above
four percent, still some way from the current 2.25-2.75 percent.

"We expect central bank tightening and a fading of supply chain pressures to
moderate job growth and core inflation," JPMorgan Chase & Co said, tipping it
to end at 4.25 percent by early next year.

"In turn, we anticipate this will allow the Fed and other central banks to
pause" in the first half of 2023, said strategists including Marko Kolanovic
and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

The outlook remains downbeat for some time, with Edward Moya at OANDA warning
the lows of June could be seen again.

"Pessimism for equities remains elevated as the US economy appears to have a
one-way ticket towards a recession as the Fed is poised to remain
aggressive," he said in a note.

"The risks for a retest of the summer lows could easily happen if the Fed
remains fully committed (to) their inflation fight."

Still, Asian markets were on the up Tuesday.

Hong Kong led the way, rising more than one percent, with Sydney not far
behind. Tokyo returned from a long weekend to post healthy gains, while
Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Manila, Wellington and Jakarta were also higher.

On currency markets the dollar remained elevated ahead of the expected rate
hike.

And while a jump in Japanese inflation to an eight-year high will cause a
headache for the Bank of Japan, officials there are expected to maintain
their ultra-loose policy to support the economy, despite the yen sitting at
24-year lows against the dollar.

Sterling was also struggling to bounce back, even as the Bank of England
lines up another big increase.

Oil prices were flat but unable to break higher owing to the strong dollar
and worries about the economic outlook, while traders were also keeping tabs
on Iran nuclear talks that could see Tehran resume crude sales.

- Key figures at around 0230 GMT -

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.4 percent at 27,684.35 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 1.3 percent at 18,802.31

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,130.36

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.1428 from $1.1434 on Monday

Euro/pound: UP at 87.75 pence from 87.69 pence

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0028 from $1.0026

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 143.13 yen from 143.24 yen

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.2 percent at $85.59 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 0.2 percent at $92.19 per barrel

New York - Dow: DOWN 0.2 percent at 30,765.98

London - FTSE 100: Closed for queen's funeral