BANGKOK, Aug 22, 2025 (BSS/AFP) - Thailand's former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra will learn his fate on Friday in a royal insult case that could see him jailed, as the political dynasty he founded falters after two decades of dominating Thai politics.

The 76-year-old faces up to 15 years in prison if the Bangkok court finds him guilty of breaching Thailand's strict lese-majeste laws that criminalise almost any criticism of King Maha Vajiralongkorn and his family.

The verdict, expected from 10:00 am (0300 GMT), comes a week before another court rules whether Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, will be thrown out of office as prime minister.

If both verdicts go against them, it would be a watershed for Thai politics, spelling the end of the family's time in high office after a 20-year period that has seen three Shinawatra prime ministers.

"I am confident in the fight," Thaksin's lawyer Winyat Chatmontree told reporters as he arrived at court. "But if the verdict goes against us, we will continue the legal battle in the appeals process."

Outside the court a gaggle of around 10 people gathered in support of Thaksin -- clad in the red colours of his movement.

"In Thai history, no one has been as good as Thaksin," 62-year-old Chutima Jairak told AFP. "I always think about how he uplifted poor people, so I am very grateful."

Thaksin testified in his own defence last month in the case which stems from decade-old remarks he made in South Korean media relating to the 2014 military coup that overthrew his sister Yingluck.

AFP is not able to report Thaksin's comments in detail because the lese-majeste law is so strict that doing so could in itself constitute a criminal offence.

- Years of tussle -
The country has been roiled by a succession of coups, street protests and court orders as Thaksin and his followers tussled for power with the traditional pro-royalist, pro-military elite that sees him as corrupt, nepotistic and a threat to Thailand's traditional social order.

Twice elected prime minister in the early 2000s, Thaksin fled Thailand and lived in self-imposed exile for 15 years after he was ousted in a military coup, finally returning to the kingdom in August 2023.

He landed in Bangkok on the same day his family's Pheu Thai party took office at the head of a coalition government backed by their conservative former enemies, fuelling suspicions a backroom deal had been struck.

On arrival, Thaksin was immediately sentenced to eight years in prison on graft and abuse of power charges dating back to his time in office.

But instead of going to jail, he was whisked to a private room at a police hospital because of health problems.

Days later, the king cut his sentence to one year, and in February 2024, he was freed as part of an early release scheme for elderly prisoners.

His handling has led to another legal case, set to conclude on September 9, arguing that because he never served time in a jail cell, he was not eligible for early release.

Prosecutions for lese-majeste, known as 112 in Thailand for its section in the criminal code, have increased sharply since anti-government protests in 2020, some of which openly criticised the monarchy.

Thai Lawyers for Human Rights, a group providing legal services in many of the cases, says that more than 280 people have been prosecuted under section 112 in the last five years.

The law says anyone who "defames, insults or threatens" the king, queen, heir or regent can face up to 15 years in prison.

Rights groups and critics say the law is now interpreted so broadly as to stifle dissent and legitimate debate.