STOCKHOLM, Oct 5, 2023 (BSS/AFP) - The Nobel Prize in Literature -- to be
announced Thursday -- could go to an overtly political author like a Kremlin
critic, or crown a safer or lesser-known writer, experts say.

All the literary gossip and wild guessing of the last few weeks will have
their answer on Thursday at 1:00 pm (1100 GMT) when the Swedish Academy in
Stockholm reveals its pick.

Russian author and outspoken Kremlin critic Lyudmila Ulitskaya, who lives in
self-imposed exile in Germany, has been frequently mentioned in this year's
speculation.

Her epic novels, often focused on personal relationships, have been compared
to those of Leo Tolstoy and John Steinbeck.

She has harshly criticised Russian President Vladimir Putin over his
"senseless" war in Ukraine, predicting it will be "catastrophic" for Russia.

Lisa Irenius, culture editor at Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet, said it
would be a bold choice to champion Russian culture at a time when Moscow is
being lambasted over Ukraine.

But it would also send a message that "literature stands free from politics",
she said.

Betting sites have been surprisingly accurate in predicting the laureate in
recent years, with Norwegian playwright Jon Fosse and China's avant-garde
fiction writer and literary critic Can Xue hotly tipped this year.

But Bjorn Wiman, culture editor at Sweden's paper of reference Dagens
Nyheter, told AFP his favourite was a political author whose name has
featured in Nobel speculation for years: Salman Rushdie.

The Indian-born British author survived a stabbing on stage last year after
living in hiding for years due to an Iranian fatwa calling for his death over
his 1988 book "The Satanic Verses".

"It's time for him to win, and if he does, hats off to the Academy" for
standing up for freedom of expression, which Rushdie embodies, Wiman said.

- Righting a wrong? -

A nod to Rushdie would correct what many see as a three-decade-old mistake
made by the 18-member Swedish Academy.

In the name of the "independence of literature", the Academy refused to
condemn the 1989 fatwa against Rushdie.

Academy members were divided about whether to stand as neutral guarantors of
the arts or as supporters of their fellow author.

Three members angered by the Academy's silence resigned.

It was not until 2016 that the Academy finally condemned the fatwa.

With no public shortlist, it is always difficult to predict which way the
Swedish Academy is leaning.

It could, as it has frequently done in the past, shine a spotlight on a
figure less well known to the general public, such as Can Xue or Fosse, whose
work is among the most widely staged of any contemporary playwright in
Europe.

Australia's Gerard Murnane, Kenyan writer Ngugi wa Thiong'o and Romanian
author Mircea Cartarescu are also much fancied.

"It's still very difficult to guess" the winner, stressed Lina Kalmteg,
literary critic for Swedish public radio SR.

As is the case for all Nobel prizes, the list of nominations and the juries'
deliberations are sealed for 50 years.

- Reflect the times -

Other "usual suspects" frequently mentioned in the speculation are Hungary's
Peter Nadas and Laszlo Krasznahorkai, Albania's Ismail Kadare, Canada's
Margaret Atwood and Somali author Nuruddin Farah.

The Swedish Academy -- made up of authors, historians, philosophers and
linguists -- has long been criticised for the overrepresentation of Western
white male authors among its picks.

Since the Academy was torn apart by a 2018 #MeToo scandal, followed by its
controversial pick of Austrian author Peter Handke for the 2019 Nobel, the
body has tried to turn the page.

Last year it gave the prestigious award to French feminist icon Annie Ernaux.

The year before it honoured British Tanzanian-born writer Abdulrazak Gurnah
for his work exploring the torments of exile, colonialism and racism.

"In recent years, there is more awareness that you can't remain in a
eurocentric perspective, there has to be more equality and the prize has to
reflect the times," Stockholm University literature professor Carin Franzen
told AFP.

She would like to see the prize go to Canadian poet Anne Carson.