NEW YORK, July 1, 2023 (BSS/AFP) - America's stressed travel infrastructure

faces a major test this weekend as it contends with record turnout expected
for the annual July 4th festivities.

The five-day stretch culminates in Tuesday's Independence Day celebration, a
highlight of the US summer calendar, marked by fireworks, barbecues and
lazing by the pool.

A record 50.7 million Americans are expected to venture at least 50 miles (80
kilometers) from home in the period heading into July 4th, eclipsing the
prior peak of 49 million in 2019, according to the American Automobile
Association.

AAA expects elevated volumes across travel modes, with the heaviest road
traffic on Friday when travel times will be 30 percent over normal.

The busiest day for flying was Thursday, which was also the biggest day for
air travel since Covid, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said on
Twitter.

But airport chaos in recent days has put many travelers on guard as airlines
struggle to meet torrid demand.

"We talked about flying," Nick Kendall said Friday as he awaited a train to
Virginia at New York's Penn Station. "I'm really glad we took the train."

Kendall, who travels regularly for work, said planes have been packed for
months in a big shift from the sleepy early pandemic period.

US airlines had spoken more hopefully about improvements this summer, but
this week's difficulties suggested it may have been wishful thinking.

Storms in New York and other East Coast destinations wreaked havoc, forcing
the cancellation of more than 3,200 flights to and from the three major New
York-area airports since Monday.

Travelers are also tracking smoky air from Canada that's moving east from the
Midwest. And extreme heat in Texas and other states has driven talk of a
federal disaster declaration to mitigate public health risks.

- Paying up -

Travel experts see this weekend's expected historic tourist volume as
reflecting favorable factors, including a strong US job market and a drop in
gasoline prices.

More than four-fifths of the travelers over the long weekend will be going by
car, benefitting from the 25 percent slide in gasoline prices. But they will
likely experience "grief at the grill," as Rabobank said of double-digit
price increases on beef, lettuce, soda, white bread and potato chips.

Even before the pandemic, young consumers had shown a preference for spending
on experiences, such as travel, compared with older generations.

If anything, those trends were boosted by the isolation of the pandemic,
helping fuel the current go-go spending on hotels, flights and cruises.

"Travel remains really robust," said Siye Desta, an equity analyst at CFRA
Research. "There hasn't been any sign of any pullback in consumer spending in
travel, even though prices have meaningfully increased."

- Stormy weather ahead? -

For people traveling this weekend by plane, the biggest worry will the
continuation of the turmoil of recent days.

In what has become a recurring theme in air travel, this week has seen
another round of horror stories of flight cancellations, stranded luggage and
airport mass sleep-ins.

"It was a madhouse at the airport," said Jason Rinka, who learned upon
landing in New York from Beijing that his connecting flight to Raleigh, North
Carolina was cancelled.

Rinka, along with his wife and daughter, stayed in New York for a few days.
They were heading via train Friday to Washington, where they would catch a
flight to North Carolina for the first visit with family in four years due to
Covid-19.

The circuitous itinerary saves the family more than $1,000 compared with
last-minute direct flights from New York to Raleigh, Rinka said.

United Airlines, the carrier at the center of this week's New York travel
chaos, blamed understaffing at the FAA for the outsized impact of the storm.

But pilots and flight attendant unions pointed at United management, while
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg noted other major carriers have
recovered from severe weather.

Buttigieg described United's disruptions as "elevated but moving in the right
direction," adding on Twitter Friday that the FAA "continues to monitor
weather and smoke."

United still had more than 230 cancellations and nearly 800 delays Friday,
more than other major US carriers, according to FlightAware.

Aviation experts note the industry has generally struggled to ramp up
capacity to meet post-pandemic need, with personnel shortfalls dogging the
system and fewer planes than expected, due in part to delayed deliveries from
Boeing and Airbus caused by supply chain issues.

"Airlines have less of a buffer today," said Chris Raite, who analyzes
aviation at Third Bridge, a research consultancy.