WASHINGTON, March 8, 2023 (BSS/AFP) - Russia's military is likely unable
to sustain its current level of fighting in Ukraine and probably won't capture
significantly more territory this year, US Director of National Intelligence
Avril Haines said Wednesday.

After major setbacks and large battlefield losses, "We do not foresee the
Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains,"
Haines told a Senate hearing.

Nevertheless, Russian President Vladimir Putin "most likely calculates that
time works in his favor," Haines said.

Putin likely believes that prolonging the war, with intermittent pauses in
fighting, "may be his best remaining pathway to eventually securing Russian
strategic interests in Ukraine, even if it takes years," she said.

Haines, reporting on the sum of views in the broad US intelligence
community, said that one year after invading Ukraine but failing in his primary
goals for the operation, Putin now probably has a better understanding of the
limitations of his forces.

Moscow's military power is now significantly constrained by troop losses
and arms depletion that is exacerbated by trade restrictions and sanctions
placed by the United States and allies, she noted.

Putin "appears to be focused on more modest military objectives now," she
told the Senate Intelligence Committee.

"If Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilization, and identify
substantial third-party ammunition supplies, it will be increasingly
challenging for them to sustain even the current level of offensive
operations," Haines said.

As a result, Russian forces "may fully shift" to holding and defending the
territories they now occupy, she said.