BSS
  08 Oct 2025, 16:01

Sharp drop in German factory output stokes recession fears

FRANKFURT, Germany, Oct 8, 2025 (BSS/AFP) - German industrial production fell more sharply than expected in August, data showed Wednesday, reviving fears of a recession in Europe's largest economy as it reels from US tariffs.

Data from the statistical office Destatis showed that from July to August, industrial production fell by 4.3 percent, much further than the one percent decline anticipated by analysts surveyed by Factset.

Following a contraction in GDP of 0.3 percent in the second quarter, the latest figures show "that the risk of yet another quarter of contraction and thus an outright technical recession is very real", said economist Carsten Brzeski of ING bank.

Later on Wednesday, Economy Minister Katherina Reiche will present the government's growth forecasts for the current year and 2026.

After two years of recession, Germany is struggling to kickstart its economy while contending with high energy prices, slowing demand and fierce foreign competition.

The decline in production in August is mainly due to a sharp drop in the embattled automotive industry, where output was down 18.5 percent.

Mechanical engineering production also fell by 6.2 percent after a 9.2 percent increase in July.

The pharmaceutical industry saw a drop in output of 10.3 percent.

Over the summer German industry had to deal with the introduction of new US tariffs, set at a level of 15 percent for most products from the European Union.

An uptick in purchases before the tariffs came into effect had given a boost to German exports.

However, according to Brezski "it increasingly looks as if this upswing was almost entirely the result of the frontloading of US products in anticipation of looming tariffs".

While new domestic orders significantly increased in August, weak foreign demand "is holding back business development," the economy ministry said in a statement on Wednesday's figures.

The data paint a "mixed picture" and reflect "the high level of geopolitical uncertainties," the statement added.