GENEVA, July 3, 2026 (BSS/AFP) - El Nino is here and will quickly develop

into a strong event between July and September, fuelling the likelihood of

extreme weather, the United Nations' climate agency warned Friday.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the climate phenomenon would

rapidly gain strength, as it warned countries to brace for impact.

El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial

Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall

patterns.

It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12

months.

Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral

conditions in between.

The WMO's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update points towards "a rapid

development into a strong El Nino event during July-September".

The UN agency classifies El Nino events as weak, moderate, strong or very

strong, meaning it is set to reach the third-highest level out of four.

"El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast

to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of...

extreme weather events in many parts of the world," the WMO said.

- Heatwave risks -

WMO climate scientist Alvaro Silva told a press conference that since last

month, "we have much more confidence that strong El Nino conditions are

developing in the equatorial Pacific".

He said the WMO may issue an update in the coming months, "for example, if we

have forecasts suggesting this will be a really strong El Nino".

The Geneva-based agency said forecasts produced by global climate centres,

using different models, indicate a consistent and significant warming of

ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

"Seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2C in

key monitoring regions," it said.

"El Nino is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere

autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe."

The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record

and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial

average.

While El Nino usually peaks between November and February, the resulting

spike in temperatures typically comes later.

"The impacts of El Nino will be felt in different regions until the end of

the year and beyond, also during 2027," underlined Silva.

The WMO said it was stepping up early warning support to help guide

preparedness, especially in climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and

health.

Such moves "are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies

and our communities", said WMO chief Celeste Saulo.

"El Nino conditions are already under way and are forecast to strengthen

rapidly into a strong event," she said.

"This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk

of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions."

- Temperature impact -

The update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures

across most land areas between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north --

covering nearly all populated areas outside the polar regions.

And the July to September rainfall outlook is consistent with a strengthening

El Nino, with above-normal rainfall forecast in areas including the

southwestern United States, and below normal forecast across the Indian

subcontinent and much of Australia.

The WMO says there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency

or intensity of El Nino events.

However, the agency believes it can amplify the associated effects, because a

warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture

for extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.

During the northern hemisphere summer, warm waters associated with El Nino

can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific, while hindering their

development in the Atlantic Ocean.

On Thursday, Peru declared a 60-day state of emergency in 800 of its 1,800

municipalities, due to the "imminent danger" of heavy rains linked to El

Nino.

More than 9.3 million people in Peru were warned of a very high risk from

flooding and landslides.

BSS/AFP/SSS/1711 hrs