GENEVA, July 3, 2026 (BSS/AFP) - El Nino is here and will quickly develop 
into a strong event between July and September, fuelling the likelihood of 
extreme weather, the United Nations' climate agency warned Friday.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the climate phenomenon would 
rapidly gain strength, as it warned countries to brace for impact.

El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial 
Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall 
patterns.

It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 
months.

Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral 
conditions in between.

The WMO's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update points towards "a rapid 
development into a strong El Nino event during July-September".

The UN agency classifies El Nino events as weak, moderate, strong or very 
strong, meaning it is set to reach the third-highest level out of four.

"El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast 
to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of... 
extreme weather events in many parts of the world," the WMO said.

- Heatwave risks -

WMO climate scientist Alvaro Silva told a press conference that since last 
month, "we have much more confidence that strong El Nino conditions are 
developing in the equatorial Pacific".

He said the WMO may issue an update in the coming months, "for example, if we 
have forecasts suggesting this will be a really strong El Nino".

The Geneva-based agency said forecasts produced by global climate centres, 
using different models, indicate a consistent and significant warming of 
ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

"Seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2C in 
key monitoring regions," it said.

"El Nino is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere 
autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe."

The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record 
and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial 
average.

While El Nino usually peaks between November and February, the resulting 
spike in temperatures typically comes later.

"The impacts of El Nino will be felt in different regions until the end of 
the year and beyond, also during 2027," underlined Silva.

The WMO said it was stepping up early warning support to help guide 
preparedness, especially in climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and 
health.

Such moves "are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies 
and our communities", said WMO chief Celeste Saulo.

"El Nino conditions are already under way and are forecast to strengthen 
rapidly into a strong event," she said.

"This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk 
of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions."

- Temperature impact -

The update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures 
across most land areas between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north -- 
covering nearly all populated areas outside the polar regions.

And the July to September rainfall outlook is consistent with a strengthening 
El Nino, with above-normal rainfall forecast in areas including the 
southwestern United States, and below normal forecast across the Indian 
subcontinent and much of Australia.

The WMO says there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency 
or intensity of El Nino events.

However, the agency believes it can amplify the associated effects, because a 
warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture 
for extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.

During the northern hemisphere summer, warm waters associated with El Nino 
can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific, while hindering their 
development in the Atlantic Ocean.

On Thursday, Peru declared a 60-day state of emergency in 800 of its 1,800 
municipalities, due to the "imminent danger" of heavy rains linked to El 
Nino.

More than 9.3 million people in Peru were warned of a very high risk from 
flooding and landslides.