STOCKHOLM, March 18, 2026 (BSS/AFP) - Sweden's intelligence service said Wednesday that the war in the Middle East has led to increased threats to US and Israeli interests, but stressed that Russia remained the main threat to the country.

"Going back several years, we have had a serious security situation in Sweden. And with the recent developments in Iran and the Middle East, the security situation around the world has deteriorated further, and that also affects us," Charlotte von Essen, head of the Swedish Security Service (Sapo), told a press conference.

"Recent developments have made the behaviour of the Iranian regime more difficult to predict," she added as Sapo published its annual threat assessment.

Sapo has previously pointed to Iran, along with Russia and China, as a principal threat to the country.

"We see an increased likelihood of attacks being directed at American or Israeli targets, or Jews, or members of the opposition in Sweden whom the Iranian regime may perceive as a serious threat to its existence," Fredrik Hallstrom, head of operations for Sapo, told AFP.

Sapo has previously accused Iran in particular of recruiting members of Swedish criminal gangs to commit "acts of violence" against Israeli and other interests in Sweden -- a claim Iran denied.

"Iran could very well consider outsourcing various missions to different proxies, carrying out attacks or acts of violence to intimidate or to send a signal," Hallstrom added.

Von Essen stressed that the agency still considered the "main threat" against Sweden to be from Russia.

"In summary, we can say that our assessment is that the deteriorating security situation, the threat we are facing, will continue to worsen in the coming years," she told AFP.

But amid recurring reports of suspected drone flights and cuts of subsea cables in the Baltic Sea she cautioned about attributing too much to Russia.

"We believe it is very important to strike this balance: to be suspicious, to stay alert... At the same time, we must not be too quick to conclude by attributing responsibility to or pointing the finger at Russia," von Essen said.

She explained that doing so carried the risk of leading to misallocation of resources, escalating the situation or play into Russia's hands.