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Pakistan’s five biggest post-election challenges
ISLAMABAD, July 19, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – The next government in Pakistan will
face myriad challenges from unsustainable population growth to simmering
extremism, all complicated by the decades-long tussle between civilian and
military leadership.
No matter who is voted into office on July 25, the new rulers will have to
make hard choices, and quickly.
Here’s a rundown of the biggest hurdles Pakistan is facing.
– Extremism –
Security has dramatically improved across Pakistan following a military
crackdown in recent years.
However analysts have long warned that Pakistan is not getting to the root
causes of extremism, and that the militants can still carry out spectacular
attacks — an ability they demonstrate periodically.
That includes during this campaign, with a string of bombings at political
events killing 175 people, including the second deadliest militant attack in
Pakistan’s history — an Islamic State-claimed blast in Balochistan on July
13 which killed 149 people.
Analysts have warned that insurgents may be regrouping and seeking to
reassert themselves after years of setbacks. – Economy –
Pakistan’s next government faces growing fears of a balance of payments
crisis, with speculation mounting it will have to seek its second IMF bailout
in five years. The central bank is burning through foreign reserves and
devaluing the rupee, including another five-percent dive this week, in a bid
to bridge a widening trade deficit.
Pakistan, which has long relied heavily on imports, increased its
procurement of materials to help build a string of Chinese-backed
infrastructure projects after inking a multi-billion dollar investment
package with Beijing — the terms of which are opaque, leading to fears over
how Islamabad will pay for it.
The economy has also been stung by higher oil prices.
MORE/MR/ 1033 hrs
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Meanwhile, meagre exports such as textiles have taken a hit from cheaper
Chinese-produced goods, while foreign remittances have also slowed.
The winners of the election will have “limited time” to act, Fitch ratings
agency warned earlier this month.
– Population growth –
Conservative Pakistan, with its limited family planning, has one of the
highest birth rates in Asia at around three children per woman, according to
the World Bank and government figures.
That has led to a fivefold increase of the population since 1960, now
touching 207 million, draft results from last year’s census show.
The boom is negating hard-won economic and social progress in the
developing country, experts have warned.
To add to the problem, discussing contraception in public is taboo in
Pakistan.
Analysts say unless more is done to slow growth, the country’s natural
resources — particularly drinking water — will not be enough to support the
population.
– Water shortages –
Pakistan is on the verge of an ecological disaster if authorities do not
urgently address looming water shortages, experts say.
Official estimates show that by 2025 the country will be facing an
“absolute scarcity” of water, with less than 500 cubic metres available per
person — just one third of the water available in parched Somalia, according
to the UN.
Pakistan has massive Himalayan glaciers, rivers, monsoon rains and floods
— but just three major water storage basins, compared with more than a
thousand in South Africa or Canada.
As such, surplus water is quickly lost.
Political initiative will be essential to building infrastructure to
reverse the course of the impending crisis. There is also little in the way
of education on water conservation.
– Civil/military relations –
Pakistan has spent roughly half its nearly 71-year history under military
rule, and the imbalance of power in civil-military relations has long been
seen as an impediment to democracy and progress.
Hope surged in 2013 as the country moved through its first ever democratic
transition of power.
But since then experts have warned of a “creeping coup” fuelled by
tensions between the generals and the government of three-time premier Nawaz
Sharif, largely attributed to his desire to assert civilian supremacy and
seek warmer relations with arch-rival India.
Sharif, ousted in 2017 and arrested for corruption earlier this month,
says he and his party are being targeted by the military.
Media, analysts, and other politicians have also widely decried what one
think tank described as a “silent coup” against Sharif, with cricketer-
turned-politician Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party the
obvious beneficiaries.
This week, Pakistan’s Human Rights Commission warned of “blatant,
aggressive and unabashed attempts to manipulate the outcome of the upcoming
elections”, with “alarming implications for Pakistan’s transition to an
effective democracy”.
The next government will be tasked with meeting the country’s challenges
without upsetting this delicate balance of power.
BSS/AFP/MR/ 1033 hrs