LOS ANGELES, Feb 28, 2020 (BSS/AFP) – Left-leaning California has thrust
itself back into the heart of the fight for the presidency in 2020, casting a
potentially decisive vote Tuesday in the Democratic nominee to face Donald
Trump.
The most populous state in the US had little say in 2016’s race for the
party’s nominee, organizing its Democratic primary as late as June, when the
game was already up for Hillary Clinton’s rival Bernie Sanders.
This time, California has brought its vote forward to March 3, marking a
return to “Super Tuesday” in which 14 states will participate.
The idea is to cast its vote at a decisive moment in the race, just days
after the important South Carolina primary.
Not known for being particularly mobilized in the past, Californians like
Peter Fisher — a 44-year-old lab technician — are well aware that this
year, their votes really can make a difference.
The primary is about “making sure that my vote goes for the candidate who
will take the country in the right direction,” he told AFP at a recent Bernie
Sanders rally.
“You can see a difference this year… there are lots of candidates here,
the ads on traditional TV are covered in candidates, social media advertising
is heavy,” said Christian Grose, a political scientist at University of
Southern California in Los Angeles.
“It’s just something people are talking about.”
California voter registration has surged to a level not seen since the
1950s, with more than 20 million people signed up — out of an eligible 25
million.
Some 44 percent of those are registered as Democrats, almost double the
Republican electorate (23.6 percent).
With more Democratic delegates — who ultimately pick the nominee — than
any other state, “the fact that it’s on Super Tuesday makes it the big catch
of all of the early states,” said Grose.
– Beat Trump –
“It’s important to keep in mind that Democratic primary voters
overwhelmingly disapprove of the job that President Trump is doing,” said
Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of the Public Policy Institute of
California.
“When asked what they’re looking for in a candidate… a very strong
majority has consistently said ‘we’re looking for a candidate that can run
against Donald Trump.'”
A poll conducted by Grose’s USC Schwarzenegger Institute asked respondents
to identify the main issues they felt were at stake in November’s general
election.
At number one came housing and homelessness — which has exploded on the
West Coast — followed by climate change and immigration.
“The number four issue from voters, when asked without a list, is the
president,” said Grose, labelling the pick “surprising.”
“The challenge is that nobody knows what qualities” will be needed to beat
Trump, added Baldassare. “There are no objective criteria for that.”
– ‘Hard to stop’ –
Edgar Pedroza, a 25-year-old American bartender whose parents are from
Mexico, believes Trump “is a horrible human being that reflects on us as a
society, as a country.”
Registered as an independent, Pedroza believes frontrunner Bernie Sanders
is best-placed to beat Trump in November.
Recent polls in California show the self-proclaimed “democratic socialist”
senator from Vermont on top with around 30 percent support, well ahead of
moderate former vice president Joe Biden and fellow progressive Senator
Elizabeth Warren, who are neck-and-neck.
But the number of undecided voters and a complex electoral system make
predictions difficult.
Candidates who score below 15 percent are eliminated, and with competition
so fierce some experts wonder whether only one or two others besides Sanders
will break that barrier, leaving him with the bulk of California’s delegates.
“If he’s getting 40-45 percent of delegates in California, it’s going to be
hard to stop”, said Grose.
For Baldassare, it is the bigger picture of “Super Tuesday” that will
determine the candidates’ fates after March 3.
“California is going to be one of the determining factors,” he said.
Indeed, the often-progressive state has not always proved visionary. In
February 2008, it preferred Clinton to Barack Obama on “Super Tuesday” — a
result which ultimately did not stop him reaching the White House.