PARIS, Jan 11, 2020 (BSS/AFP) – 2020 is the most crucial year yet for
humanity’s plan to dodge the bullet of catastrophic global warming, experts
said Saturday, warning that the narrow path to safety was riddled with
pitfalls, from the US election to Brexit.
When nations struck the 2015 Paris agreement, which aims to limit
temperature rises under 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), they agreed on
five-year periods in which climate action could be implemented, assessed and
boosted.
2020 is the year the landmark deal goes into effect, yet almost three
decades of diplomatic wrangling has fallen far short of what science says is
needed to avert disastrous climate change.
A crucial UN summit at which leaders will finalise their action plans to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions is set to open in Glasgow on November 9 —
just six days after a US general election that could see President Donald
Trump win a second term.
Trump shocked the world in 2017 when he said the United States —
history’s largest emitter — was withdrawing from the Paris agreement. It is
due to leave the deal on November 4.
“Another four years of Trump in the White House would mean that the
world’s key country in terms of providing global leadership will be sitting
the problem out,” Michael Oppenheimer, professor of Geosciences and
International Affairs at Princeton University, told AFP.
“So that’s four years of having a millstone around the neck of the world’s
efforts to deal with climate change.”
After a year of climate-related disasters, from cyclones and flooding in
Africa and southeast Asia to devastating wildfires in Australia and
California, nations in December failed to make progress during the annual UN
Climate Change Conference COP 25.
More than 100 countries have pledged to redouble their efforts to reduce
domestic emissions, but the biggest polluters — China, India, the US and the
European Union — have yet to unveil new plans.
– Brexit ‘risk’ –
The Paris deal was dragged partly over the line thanks to more than a year
of shuttle diplomacy by host France.
Climate negotiations are multilateral and emissions cuts voluntary, so
much depends on the skill and tactics of the country in charge of annual COP
negotiating sessions.
COP26 president Claire O’Neill told AFP last month that climate would be
the British government’s “number one global priority” this year leading up to
the Glasgow summit.
But there are fears that Brexit trade negotiations with Brussels, which
will last until around the same time as COP26, will drain much-needed
diplomatic bandwidth.
“There is a Brexit scenario in which the UK is distracted at the highest
level and the relationship with the EU has soured,” said Nick Mabey, CEO of
the green thinktank E3G.
“It’s a risk. Brexit is the government’s number one defensive diplomatic
priority and I would say COP needs to be its number one offensive diplomatic
priority.
“COP requires a huge, proactive campaigning, full-functioning diplomatic
machine,” he told AFP.
Mabey said Britain already had more than 100 diplomats focusing solely on
climate ahead of Glasgow.
– EU-China summit –
But perhaps the biggest moment for the climate in 2020 will come before
both the US election or the COP.
In September, the EU-China summit in Leipzig is likely to see the world’s
largest single market push the world’s biggest carbon polluter for greater
emissions-cutting commitments.
Li Shuo, senior global policy advisor for Greenpeace East Asia, said this
year presented a massive opportunity for China to show global leadership over
climate.
“The US, China, EU climate tricycle has had a wheel pulled off by Trump,”
said Li Shuo, senior global policy advisor for Greenpeace East Asia.
“Going into 2020 it is critical for the two remaining wheels to roll in
sync. “The decision taken by Chinese leaders over the next year… matters to
how the world views China under increasingly turbulent geopolitics,” Shuo
said.
China and fellow emitter India were accused of stymying greater ambition
at COP25 in Madrid by insisting they had already done their fair share in
cutting carbon pollution.
Even if nations can agree in Glasgow to boost action during the next five
years, their voluntary pledges are likely to be worlds apart from the drastic
emissions cuts that Earth needs.
“Something called success is probably off the table for the moment,” said
Mabey.