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The state of Britain’s economy as Brexit looms
LONDON, Sept 11, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – British unemployment has hit a 45-year
low, official data showed Tuesday, but the economy still risks falling into a
deep recession owing to Brexit turmoil.
Here is an assessment of the economy and where it is heading, as Britain
prepares to leave the European Union on October 31, with or without a deal
according to Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
– How positive is the unemployment data? –
Britain’s unemployment rate eased in July to 3.8 percent, the lowest level
since 1974, and down on 3.9 percent in June.
Annual wages growth meanwhile climbed to 4.0 percent, the highest level
since 2008, but skewed by bonus payments.
On the surface, the data looks positive, but Britain’s low unemployment
rate is not boosting productivity. Many workers are in part-time employment
or on “zero-hour contracts” offering no minimum guarantee of hours, say
analysts.
“Employment has been rising appreciably but growth has been lacklustre —
so output per-hour worked has actually been falling,” Howard Archer, chief
economic advisor to forecasters EY ITEM Club, told AFP on Tuesday.
“There may be an element of some companies taking on workers recently out
of concern that with the labour market pretty tight and Brexit occurring,
they may be unable to get the quality of workers they need in the future.”
Archer added that “while earnings growth has been rising over the past
year, it still remains much cheaper and less risky in a highly uncertain
environment to take on labour rather than invest.
“It is also much easier to reverse the taking-on of extra workers than
pulling the plug on an investment project if the situation deteriorates,” he
said.
– Where is the UK economy overall? –
Analysis of the health of Britain’s economy can change quickly. Last week,
experts reckoned on the country heading for recession this year even before
Brexit, amid a global slowdown.
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However the outlook has changed for some after official data Monday showed
that UK economic growth grew by a better-than-expected 0.3 percent in July.
Market experts still expect a severe downturn in the event of a chaotic EU
departure.
“The UK economy remains in a strong position, defying calls for a
recession,” Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said following the
gross domestic product (GDP) update and after the latest “solid, if
unspectacular” jobs data.
– What about the weak pound’s impact? –
The pound, seen as a better indicator of the UK’s economic health than the
London stock market which is loaded with multinationals, continues to suffer
Brexit-fuelled volatility.
Sterling last week slid below $1.20 for the first time in nearly three
years — reaching the lowest level since 1985 except for a 2016 “flash
crash”.
One of the biggest consequences of a weak pound has been to push up import
costs, which in turn has contributed to higher UK inflation.
But while the Bank of England would ordinarily look to hike interest rates
to put a lid on rising inflation, Brexit uncertainty has caused it to sit
tight. Its key lending rate stands at just 0.75 percent.
Supermarkets have meanwhile sought to avoid passing on their higher costs
to consumers owing to strong price-competition across the sector.
But small businesses are finding it harder to shield themselves, while
Britons heading abroad are facing costlier holidays.
– Deal or no-deal? –
While Britain may avoid falling into recession should it reach an exit
deal with the European Union, experts predict a dramatic slowdown in the
event of a no-deal.
The Bank of England’s latest assessment is for a slide in British GDP of
5.5 percent following a no-deal Brexit.
Unemployment would meanwhile surge to 7.0 percent and the annual inflation
rate soar to 5.25 percent from a current 2.1 percent.
BSS/AFP/HR/1210