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UN report confronts nations with tough choices on climate
PARIS, Sept 30, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – The world’s nations will gather at a UN
conference in South Korea on Monday to review and approve a 20-page bombshell
— distilled from more than 6,000 scientific studies — laying out narrowing
options for staving off climate catastrophe.
When the 195 countries who signed off on the Paris Agreement in 2015
requested a report from UN-led scientists on the feasibility of capping
global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, the gesture seemed to many
unnecessary.
The treaty, after all, enjoined the world to block the rise in Earth’s
surface temperature at “well below” 2C (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to
pre-industrial levels, adding a safety buffer to the two-degree threshold
long seen as the guardrail for a climate-safe world.
Since then, however, a crescendo of deadly heat waves, floods, wildfires
and superstorms engorged by rising seas — with less than 1C warming so far –
– has convinced scientists that the danger cursor needed to be reset.
“There is increasing and very robust evidence of truly severe and
catastrophic risks even at the lower bounds of these temperature targets,”
said Peter Frumhoff, director of science and policy at the Union of Concerned
Scientists, a Washington-based research and advocacy group.
The promise of “pursuing efforts” to limit warming to 1.5C — added to the
Paris treaty at the last minute, in part to assuage poor nations who felt
short-changed on other fronts — caught scientists off-guard.
“There wasn’t very much literature on 1.5C warming three years ago,” said
Jim Skea, a professor of at Imperial College London’s Centre for
Environmental Policy, and a co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel for
Climate Change (IPCC), the UN science body charged with writing the “Special
Report” on 1.5C.
– But is it feasible? –
Of hundreds of climate models in 2015 projecting a low-carbon future, only
two or three aimed for a 1.5C global warming cap.
The 20-page Summary Policy Makers — which will be collectively
scrutinised, line-by-line, by hundreds of diplomats through Friday —
contains several benchmark findings, according to a draft obtained by AFP.
At current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, for example, the Earth’s
surface will heat up beyond the 1.5C threshold by 2040, the report concludes
with “high confidence”.
To have a fighting chance of staying under the 1.5C cap, the global
economy must, by 2050, become “carbon neutral”, meaning no additional CO2 can
be allowed to leach into the atmosphere.
In addition, the report suggests that carbon dioxide emissions from human
activity will need to peak in 2020 and curve sharply downward from there.
So far, we are still moving in the wrong direction: after remaining stable
for three years — raising hopes the peak had come — emissions rose in 2017
to historic levels.
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For many scientists, these targets are technically feasible but
politically or socially unrealistic, along with the broader 1.5C goal.
“The feasibility is probably going to remain an open question, even after
the report comes out,” said Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences
and international affairs at Princeton University.
A main focus of the underlying, 400-page report — written by a team of 86
authors, supported by another 150 scientists — is the difference a half-
degree Celsius can make in terms of impacts.
“When we’re talking about 1.5C it’s not just to protect a few dozen small
island nations,” said Henri Waisman, a senior researcher at the Institute for
Sustainable Development and International Relations, and a coordinating
author of the report.
“It’s to avoid dramatic impacts that become exponentially more dramatic
when we go from 1.5C to 2C.”
– Tipping points –
What used to be once-a-century heatwaves in southern and central Europe,
for example, are projected to occur four out of 10 summers in a 1.5C world,
and six out of ten in a 2C world.
Many tropical fisheries are likely to collapse somewhere between the 1.5C
and 2C benchmark, as fish seek cooler waters; staple food crops will decline
in yield and nutrition an extra 10 to 15 percent; coral reefs that may have a
chance of surviving if air temperatures remain below 1.5C will very likely
perish with an additional half-degree of warming.
Most worrying of all, perhaps, are temperature “tipping points” that could
push methane-laden permafrost and the ice sheets of Greenland and West
Antarctica — which hold enough frozen water to lift global oceans by a dozen
metres (nearly 40 feet) — beyond the point of no return.
Some experts, however, worry that focusing on the contrast between a 1.5C
and 2C world obscures the fact we are currently on a trajectory that will
crash through both these thresholds.
“I don’t think 2C is safe, and I would never want to argue it,” said
Frumhoff. “By many measures, 1.5C is not enough.”
“But while we might call 2C an upper bound, let’s not pretend that we’re
on a 2C path — we are way above that,” he told AFP.
Even taking into account voluntary national pledges to cut greenhouse gas
emissions, submitted in an annex to the Paris treaty, the Earth is on track
to heat up by an unliveable 3.5C or more by century’s end.
“If we want to save ourselves from the disasters that are looming, we only
have unrealistic options left,” said Kaisa Kosonen, Greenpeace IPPC campaign
lead.
“We have to try to make the impossible possible.”
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