Trump aid cuts embolden Israel but hurt peace prospects: analysts

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RAMALLAH, Palestinian Territories, Sept 2, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – US President
Donald Trump’s swingeing cuts to aid for Palestinians will advance Israel’s
interests but risk compromising a US-led peace push and raise tensions in the
Middle East, analysts and diplomats said Saturday.

The US administration announced Friday it would no longer provide any
funding to the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), a week
after cutting over $200 million (170 million euros) in separate aid to
Palestinians.

They were the latest in a series of controversial moves by the Trump
administration that have thrilled Israel’s government but caused shock and
dismay among international powers and Palestinians, making their dream of an
independent state more distant than ever.

The cuts come as the international community seeks to reach an agreement to
deliver significant humanitarian aid to the poverty-stricken Gaza Strip,
where most residents rely on external handouts.

The US has long been the largest single donor to UNRWA, providing more than
$350 million a year.

The agency provides support to Palestinians who fled their homes in the
1948 war surrounding the creation of Israel, as well as their descendants.

Israel and the US object to the fact that Palestinians can pass refugee
status to their children, and want the number of refugees covered by UNRWA to
be sharply reduced.

The Palestinians accuse the US of blatant bias and of seeking to strip them
of their rights.

A week earlier, the US government ended Palestinian funding by USAID, which
amounted to more than $200 million a year.

In December, the US recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, breaking
decades of international consensus that the status of the disputed city
should be negotiated between Israelis and Palestinians.

The May opening of the US embassy in the city triggered Palestinian
protests that saw dozens of demonstrators in Gaza shot dead by Israeli
forces.

A European diplomat said Saturday the US moves, taken in conjunction with
an American pledge to veto any motions criticising Israel at the UN Security
Council, were emboldening Israel’s government, considered the most right-wing
in the country’s history.

Israel is increasingly convinced it has a free hand to accelerate
settlement growth and even advocate for annexing parts of the West Bank, the
diplomat said.

Alan Baker, a former Israeli diplomat-turned-analyst, said the government
would be thrilled by the aid cuts.

“The UNRWA thing is very logical as it has become an anachronistic
organisation — maintaining the refugee status rather than trying to solve
it.”

– No leverage with Palestinians –

Baker said the aim of the cuts was also to force the Palestinians back to
the negotiating table, though others said that was unlikely.

Trump’s team, led by his son-in-law Jared Kushner and Middle East envoy
Jason Greenblatt, has been pushing for what the US leader has called the
“ultimate deal”, but the Palestinians have boycotted his administration since
its Jerusalem announcement.

The cuts mean the US is providing very little aid to Palestinians, and
another European diplomat said the move weakened Trump’s hand.

“When you have no money left to threaten them with, you have reduced your
leverage,” he said.

Palestinian economist Nasser Abdel Kareem told AFP the cuts would hurt
Palestinians but have little impact on the government.

Unlike some European states, the US does not provide direct budgetary
support to the Palestinian Authority.

The only part of US funding that goes directly to the PA — for security
coordination with Israel — was not cut.

The cut “will not harm the treasury of the Palestinian Authority,” Kareem
told AFP.

Nadia Hijab, president of the Palestinian think tank Al-Shabaka, said
returning to negotiations would be extremely unpopular among Palestinians.

But she fears that with full US support, Israel will have free reign to
increase settlement growth.

“If the PA goes back and talks to the Americans it is giving them a green
light to do whatever they want to do, and if they don’t go back, they are
going to do what they want to do,” she said.

“At the moment it is a lose-lose situation.”

Hugh Lovatt, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, agreed.

“If anything, the Palestinians will now double down on their current
approach, which is to boycott the US administration and attack the yet-to-be
unveiled US peace plan,” he said.

– Regional fears –

Hijab and many Palestinians do not believe the US is seeking to get the
Palestinian leadership back to the table.

Instead, she said, they believe the US is trying to help Israel “end the
conflict on its terms and legalise its occupation”.

That would mean stripping refugees across the region of their rights,
specifically the idea they could one day return to historic Palestine.

In both Jordan and Lebanon, Palestinian refugees have fewer rights than
citizens and rely on UNRWA services for education, healthcare and other basic
services.

In Gaza, run by the Islamist movement Hamas, the majority of the two
million residents are refugees, meaning the UNRWA cuts will hit particularly
hard.

Job losses for a few hundred of the agency’s staff have already sparked
major protests.

The Gaza Strip suffers from desperate poverty and is largely sealed off by
both Israel and its other land neighbour, Egypt.

Hamas and Israel have fought three wars since 2008.

Some in the Israeli security services quietly express concern that
immediate cuts to UNRWA could increase tensions with Israel in Gaza and the
West Bank.