BFF-60 Saudi eyes international intervention in Yemen: analysts

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Saudi eyes international intervention in Yemen: analysts

DUBAI, July 26, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – Saudi Arabia’s halt to oil shipments
through a strategic waterway after Yemeni rebel attacks could provoke an
international intervention in Yemen’s “forgotten” war, analysts say.

The world’s top oil exporter on Wednesday suspended all oil shipments
through the Bab al-Mandab Strait after accusing Iran-aligned Huthis of having
attacked two giant tankers carrying four million barrels of crude.

“All oil shipments through Bab al-Mandab Strait have been suspended
temporarily until… maritime transit through the area is safe,” Saudi Energy
Minister Khalid al-Falih announced.

One of the vessels sustained only minor damage in Wednesday’s attack and
there were no casualties, the Saudi national oil company Aramco said, while
the Huthis said they targeted a Saudi warship.

The escalation of tensions in the strategic region could encourage outside
powers to intervene, said Ellen Wald, author of the book “Saudi Inc”.

“The Red Sea is a very important shipping lane. If there is a major
disruption, European powers, Egypt and the United States would all have
reason to intervene,” she wrote in Forbes magazine.

“An international intervention against the Huthis may be just what Saudi
Arabia wants.”

Global oil prices rose slightly after the incident but industry experts
said the increase was likely to be minimal and short-lived.

The incident, however, draws the attention of the international community
to the dangers of spillover from Yemen’s festering three-year-old war.

The Bab al-Mandab connects the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea and is a narrow,
strategic navigation lane for oil and international trade.

“The Saudi halt will cause prices to increase slightly and for a limited
period,” Kuwaiti oil expert Kamel al-Harami said.

“It will cause a 15-day delay in oil shipments as they have to re-route
through south of the African continent,” Harami told AFP.

The main impact of the incident appears to be military, according to
Harami.

“It could be a reason for increased naval presence for many countries,
mainly the United States and Russia, thus resulting in an escalation of
tensions,” he said.

The suspension comes as Saudi Arabia seeks to ramp up oil production under
pressure from the United States.

Already there are concerns over the implication of US-Iran tensions on oil
markets.

James Dorsey, an expert on Middle East affairs, said the attacks on oil
tankers would draw international attention to Yemen.

“A spike in oil prices.. may be short-lived, but the impact on Yemen’s
forgotten war is likely to put the devastating conflict on the front burner,”
he said.

“The halt of oil shipments could provoke an escalation of the conflict with
external powers intervening in a bid to assist Saudi Arabia.”

– ‘Threat to international trade’ –

“The halt potentially offers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates an
opportunity to focus international attention on resolving a civil war
aggravated and turned into a regional conflict by the two Gulf states’
military intervention,” Dorsey said.

Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen in 2015, leading a military coalition
backing the country’s government after Huthi rebels ousted it from the
capital Sanaa the previous year.

At least 10,000 people have been killed and thousands others wounded in
Yemen, one of the world’s most impoverished nations.

Over 20 million Yemenis need humanitarian aid, millions are on the brink of
famine and hundreds of thousands have been infected with diseases, mainly
cholera.

Oil tankers from the Gulf pass through the Bab al-Mandab to enter the Red
Sea headed for Europe through the Suez Canal.

About 4.8 million barrels of crude oil and refined products pass through
the waterway each day, according to the US Energy Information Administration
(EIA).

The Saudi-led coalition has repeatedly raised alarm that Huthi rebels
threaten vessels in the Red Sea through their control of the strategic
Hodeida port.

“This terrorist attack is a dangerous threat to the freedom of navigation
and international trade in the Red Sea,” said Turki al-Maliki, a spokesman
for the Saudi-led coalition.

Pro-government forces backed up by the coalition have paused an assault on
Hodeida port in a bid they say to give UN-led peace efforts a chance.

BSS/AFP/MRI/1842 hrs