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Five foreign policy challenges Erdogan faces after re-election
ISTANBUL, June 25, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set
to take a tough line with the West on key foreign policy issues including the
Syria conflict, Russian relations and migrants in his new term, but he may
also show signs of compromise.
In the months leading up to Sunday’s presidential election, which Erdogan
won decisively, tensions with the West have grown over Turkey’s increasingly
close alliance with Russia and other non-NATO powers as Ankara burnishes its
ambitions as a global power.
Here are the five foreign policy issues Erdogan will need to address
during his new tenure:
– Relations with the US –
Turkey and the United States have been at loggerheads over a number of
issues, from American support for a Syrian Kurdish militia despised by Ankara
to Washington’s failure to extradite Muslim preacher Fethullah Gulen, accused
by Ankara of ordering a failed 2016 coup.
“The new Erdogan administration will carry on these negotiations with
the hope of fixing the relationship with the US,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli,
Ankara office director of the German Marshall Fund of the US.
One of the stumbling blocks is US backing for the Syrian People’s
Protection Units (YPG), deemed “terrorists” by Ankara and linked to the
outlawed PKK militants who have waged a bloody insurgency against the Turkish
state since 1984.
However analysts say Washington has been willing to make concessions
despite the tensions, as shown by the US delivering its first shipments of F-
35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey last week.
– Russia –
Erdogan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have forged an
increasingly strong alliance based on seeking peace in Syria after patching
up relations poisoned by Turkey’s downing of a Russian war plane in 2015.
Washington has been particularly concerned by Ankara’s decision to buy
Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile batteries, which are not compatible with
NATO’s defence systems.
Putin, a frequent guest of Erdogan in Turkey, on Monday congratulated the
Turkish strongman on his re-election, saying that the result showed his
“great political authority”.
Gareth Jenkins, Istanbul-based non-resident senior research fellow at the
Silk Road Studies Program, said “ultimately Erdogan is going to have to
choose between the US and Russia — and he will pay a price whichever he
chooses.”
– Syria –
Since the Syrian war erupted in 2011, Turkey has been a fervent opponent
of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and ruled out any form of direct
dialogue with Damascus.
But with Turkey already hosting 3.5 million Syrian refugees, Ankara has
focused more on border security and helping those displaced go home.
Aaron Stein, resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said Turkey
has already found a “formula” with the Assad regime.
“It works through Russia to achieve its interests – and those interest
don’t include regime change,” he told AFP.
“Instead, they have accepted the regime will stay in power, but are
determined to set up their own statelet to act as a buffer along the border.”
– Relations with the EU –
Ties between Turkey and the European Union have been particularly
strained since the crackdown that followed the attempted overthrow of Erdogan
in July 2016, with EU member states calling on Ankara to lift the state of
emergency.
However veteran Turkish diplomat Ozdem Sanberk said he believed an era
of compromise would start and “relations will reach a more healthy ground
than before”.
Turkey and the EU agreed to a deal in 2016 to curb the influx of migrants
into Europe which has been criticised by rights groups, but has helped slow
down arrivals.
Erdogan, who raised eyebrows in the West when he threatened to send
millions of migrants to Europe, was sidelined from the agreement but so far
it has remained in place.
“There might be a number of problems but there’s no deal that works 100
percent perfectly,” said Sanberk.
– Global ambitions –
Over the past few years Erdogan has pressed what Ankara calls a multi-
vector foreign policy and championed causes like the Palestinians and Muslim
minorities around the world.
He has hosted Muslim leaders several times, including earlier this year
for a summit aimed at coordinating a united Islamic response to the US
decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
The countries who rapidly congratulated Erdogan on his re-election were
symbolic of Ankara’s foreign policy stance, with leaders such as Venezuelan
President Nicolas Maduro and Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir, who have
pariah status in the West, among the first to hail his win.
But analyst Jenkins warned that Erdogan would make errors unless he
“begins to employ people who both understand foreign policy and are willing
to tell him the truth rather than what they think he wants to hear.”
BSS/AFP/RY/20:13 hrs