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Afghanistan’s chequered history with Taliban peace talks
KABUL, June 9, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – An unprecedented ceasefire between the
Afghan government and the Taliban has sparked hopes the move may open the
door for a new push for peace talks in the bloody, nearly 17-year conflict.
The Taliban have long insisted on the complete withdrawal of foreign forces
from Afghanistan as a precondition for peace talks — a major sticking point
to kick-starting any potential negotiations.
Here’s a rundown of the fits and starts with past peace initiatives during
the country’s long insurgency:
– The fall –
The US military invade Afghanistan on October 7, 2001, in the wake of the
September 11 attacks by Al-Qaeda, and force the Taliban from power within
weeks. But by 2003 US attention is diverted to Iraq.
The Taliban and other Islamist groups retreat to their strongholds in the
south and east of Afghanistan, from where they can easily travel to and from
Pakistan’s semi-autonomous tribal belt. Slowly they begin to regroup.
– The resurgence –
In February 2007 the Taliban’s growing reach is brought home when
insurgents attack a US base in Afghanistan as vice president Dick Cheney
visits, killing 24 people.
US President Barack Obama orders a “surge” of 30,000 troops into
Afghanistan in December 2009, but says withdrawals will begin in July 2011.
The number of NATO-led forces rises to a peak of 150,000 in the summer of
2010.
In May of 2011 Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is finally killed by US
special forces in Pakistan. The killing prompts calls for the war to end.
Shortly after, Obama announces that 33,000 US troops will be withdrawn by the
middle of 2012.
But hopes for talks are dampened when Burhanuddin Rabbani — a former
president and then-president Hamid Karzai’s peace envoy — becomes the most
senior politician to be killed in the conflict, in a September 2011
assassination blamed by Afghan officials on the Taliban.
– The talks –
The Taliban open an office in Qatar in June 2013 following secret back-
channel negotiations with US officials in a first move towards a possible
peace deal.
However, the initiative collapses a month later after they enrage Karzai by
styling themselves as the unofficial embassy for a government-in-exile.
In December 2014, NATO formally ends its combat mission in Afghanistan,
handing over security to beleaguered Afghan forces struggling with soaring
casualties and desertion.
But hopes are raised when direct peace talks between Kabul and the Afghan
Taliban — the first of the conflict — begin in Pakistan in July 2015.
The shock revelation that Mullah Omar, the Taliban’s founder, had died two
years earlier, with the group covering up his death, quickly derails the
talks.
– The ceasefire? –
In the following years security deteriorates in Afghanistan, particularly
Kabul, with the nascent Islamic State group adding to the challenges faced by
struggling security forces.
The capital becomes the deadliest place in the country for civilians as
casualties surge.
In February this year Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani unveils a plan to
open peace talks with the Taliban, including eventually recognising them as a
political party. He floats a ceasefire as part of the plan.
It is the most comprehensive offer by Kabul, but it is snubbed by the
Taliban, who view Ghani’s government as illegitimate, and instead step up
attacks.
On May 31 the Pentagon says that senior Afghan officials are negotiating
with the Taliban over a ceasefire.
Days later, on June 7, Ghani announces what appears to be a unilateral
ceasefire with the Taliban for Eid, the holiday that caps off Ramadan, though
he says operations against other groups including IS will continue.
The Taliban do not immediately respond, and analysts are sceptical, as
social media is flooded with Afghans calling on the insurgents to agree. NATO
and US officials say they hope the move can lead to a breakthrough.
By Saturday the Taliban announce their own unprecedented ceasefire for the
first three days of Eid. The statement does not respond directly to Ghani,
but the dates overlap.
The moves are greeted with caution by many, but also relief by war-weary
civilians and Afghan officials. A Western analyst in Kabul tells AFP they are
a “confidence-building measure”.
Whether they lead to something bigger remains to be seen.
BSS/AFP/MRI/1825 hrs