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Trade disputes to dominate as ASEAN meets in Bangkok
BANGKOK, June 20, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – Southeast Asian leaders will dissect
the impact of the US-China tariff war this weekend at a Bangkok summit, with
Beijing determined to drive forward a trade pact sweeping in 40 percent of
global commerce — but excluding America.
Disputes in the flashpoint South China Sea and Myanmar’s treatment of
Rohingya Muslims are also likely to make the agenda at the two-day
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting starting Saturday in
the Thai capital.
But commerce will dominate, with the trade war between the world’s two
biggest economies pushing some major manufacturers to flee China to Southeast
Asia and casting doubts over the future of free trade.
US President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese
goods, from sneakers and socks to washing machines and furniture, prompting
Beijing to hit back with levies on $60 billion of American imports.
“One of the biggest beneficiaries is ASEAN,” said Drew Thompson, a
research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, in
reference to the gains Asia’s low-cost manufacturing nations stand to make
from trade tensions between China and the United States.
Firms including Brooks Running Company and washing machine maker Haier
have already started migrating from China, seeking friendlier, lower-tariff
markets in Vietnam, Thailand or Indonesia.
With the spat grinding on, Beijing is intensifying its drive to sign a
massive trade pact that sweeps in Southeast Asia.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) includes all 10
ASEAN economies, plus India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
It links about half the world’s population and is seen as a way for China
to draft the architecture of Asian-Pacific trade, following a US retreat from
the region.
Shortly after his election, Trump pulled the US from the Trans Pacific
Partnership (TPP) — which would have been the world’s largest trade deal —
slamming it as an American “job killer”.
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– ‘Bad news for everyone’ –
Backers hoped to sign the RCEP deal by the end of this year.
But negotiations have become sticky with Australia and New Zealand pushing
for “high quality” environmental and labour protections.
India is also seeking guarantees the deal will not force its market open
to duty-free goods from its main economic rival China through Southeast Asia.
In seeking to draw its own perimeters, New Delhi is the “glaring objector”
to the free trade deal, Thompson added.
Expectations of concrete progress in Bangkok have dimmed — although RCEP
negotiators are scheduled to meet on Saturday.
In the absence of a deal, observers worry the short-term gains for ASEAN
from the US-China trade war may soon be consumed by falling global growth
rates.
“If China and the US continue and the world economy suffers… then it’s
just bad news for everybody,” Fred Burke, managing partner at law firm Baker
McKenzie in Vietnam, which specialises in investment, told AFP.
– Sea squabbles, Rohingya returns –
As usual, bitter disputes over competing claims in the South China Sea are
likely to surface in Bangkok after a collision between a Filipino and Chinese
ship in the resource-rich waterway.
Some officials in Manila initially blamed Chinese sailors for deliberately
ramming the boat and leaving Filipino fishermen stranded at sea.
But Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte this week downplayed the
incident, saying it was “just a collision”.
The flashpoint highlights the urgent need for toughened-up terms in a Code
of Conduct for clashes between fishermen at sea, said Manila-based security
analyst Richard Heydarian.
“If the Chinese don’t rein in these fishermen… this is just going to get
worse,” he said.
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Myanmar may also face pressure over the stalled repatriation of Rohingya
Muslims, currently living in camps in Bangladesh, after more than 740,000 of
the persecuted minority fled a 2017 army crackdown in Rakhine state.
The country’s de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi is expected in Bangkok as
is Malaysian premier Mahathir Mohamad who has previously broken diplomatic
protocol by criticising a fellow ASEAN leader.
An upbeat ASEAN report leaked to AFP this month was criticised for
predicting that half a million Rohingya will soon return, failing to use the
word “Rohingya” and glossing over ongoing violence in Rakhine.
“ASEAN needs to stop turning a blind eye to Myanmar’s atrocities against
the Rohingya,” said Eva Sundari, an Indonesian MP and a board member of the
ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights.
Campaigners are also urging ASEAN leaders to tackle the mounting problem
of plastic and electronic waste — much of it imported from Western nations
and accumulating in Southeast Asia.
Greenpeace this week said the region has become “the world’s new
dumpsite”.
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