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Jihadist defeat, US Syria pullout on table at coalition talks
MUNICH, Germany, Feb 15, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – Defence ministers from the US-
led coalition fighting the Islamic State group meet on Friday in Munich to
discuss how to reorganise in Syria after the defeat of the last pocket of
jihadists and the departure of US troops.
Time is short: IS fighters are cornered by an Arab-Kurdish militia backed
by the US in a last battle over the remaining patch of territory the
militants control in northeastern Syria.
With defeat of IS’s self-declared “caliphate” imminent, American troops
are set to withdraw from Kurdish-controlled areas, prompting a repositioning
of the remaining players in the region.
Around 20 ministers including those from the US, France, Britain, and
Germany will take part in the meeting, according to one source.
US forces are the largest contributors by far to the anti-IS coalition and
their pullout will leave a vacuum in Syria where major powers are jostling
for influence.
US President Donald Trump announced the pullout of around 2,000 US troops
in December, stunning allies including France and Britain who warned the
fight against jihadists was not finished.
“The withdrawal of the American troops from Syria will evidently be at the
heart of discussions,” said French Armed Forces Minister Florence Parly.
“Once the so-called caliphate no longer has any territory, the
international community will have to guarantee that there will be no
resurgence of Daesh in Syria or elsewhere,” her ministry’s statement said,
using the Arabic acronym for Islamic State.
The end of IS territory in Syria is heightening worries about experienced
militants and foreign fighters escaping and forming new IS cells in Syria or
beyond.
– Fate of Kurds –
Once American forces leave, another complication emerges: The future of
areas in northern Syria controlled by Kurdish YPG forces, a key US ally in
the fight against jihadists but a militia branded terrorists by Turkey.
Questions remain over whether Turkey will follow up on President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan’s warnings Turkish forces may launch operations against the
Kurds to curb their influence along Turkey’s frontier.
Istanbul and Washington have called for the creation of a “security zone”
to separate YPG-controlled areas from the Turkish border as the US and Turkey
increasingly align their positions.
As US forces leave, Syria’s government could also turn to allies Russia
and Iran to regain influence in the Kurdish-controlled north.
But some analysts warn Trump’s over-reliance on Turkey once US troops
leave could be complicated and not welcomed by other coalition allies.
“The brutal fact that will confront Trump is that Turkey’s military is not
ready for an extensive presence throughout eastern Syria,” said Nicholas
Heras, a Middle East fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
“Neither France nor the United Kingdom, which have their own forces in
Syria, are keen on the idea of Turkish forces assuming responsibility for
what the US forces currently do.”
– Observation force –
Acting Pentagon chief Patrick Shanahan said this week the US-led coalition
had had several discussions to understand how to guarantee stability and
security of the area and with what resources.
Washington’s suggestion of installing an observation force in a buffer
zone in Syria’s north has the twin objectives of avoiding a Turkish assault
on Kurdish forces and halting any jihadist resurgence.
“Clearly the coalition with its resources and capabilities is an option,”
the acting Pentagon chief said. “It’s one that we are pursuing and at this
stage it’s still being discussed.”
But without American troops on the ground, that option leaves doubts for
Western coalition allies like France, which contributes about 1,200 forces in
the region, including artillery and soldiers training Iraqi troops.
“It is totally out of the question to have French troops on the ground
without the Americans there,” one French government source told AFP. “It’s
just no.”
“Securing a buffer zone of an estimated 400 kilometres (250 miles) in
length and 30 km in width would require around 20,000 troops,” said one high-
ranking European military official.
Beyond Munich, the coalition’s decisions will also be closely followed by
Ankara, Moscow and Tehran, whose presidents convened in Sochi on Thursday to
discuss the consequences of the US plan to withdraw from Syria.
Russia and Iran — who both back the regime of Syria’s President Bashar al-
Assad — and rebel supporter Turkey have positioned themselves as key foreign
players in Syria’s long-running war.
BSS/AFP/RY/08:05 hrs