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Grim outlook for Aussie right points to another switch of PM
SYDNEY, Feb 2, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – While much of the West embraces the
populist right, Australians are baulking at their government’s climate-
sceptic tough-on-migrants message, with polls pointing to a change in
government at this May’s election.
As things stand, folksy Aussie Prime Minister Scott Morrison risks being
turfed out after less than a year on the job — a short innings even in the
self-styled coup capital of the democratic world.
Current polls show his conservative Liberal Party heading for its worst
electoral defeat since 1983 and Australia getting a seventh change of prime
minister in ten years.
“The polling has really been consistently showing that the Labor Party are
ahead by a significant margin,” said Glenn Kefford, a campaigns expert at
Macquarie University. “The sentiment out there is that the Labor party are
headed for victory, it’s just a question of what the size of that victory
will be.”
Facing an uncertain future, three of Morrison’s cabinet ministers have
called it quits before the campaign gets into full swing.
All three cited personal reasons for their departure, a common occurrence
in the dog days of a two-term government.
But the prospect of a contentious campaign followed by long periods
languishing on the opposition benches undoubtedly made their decision easier.
Minister for Women Kelly O’Dwyer publicly described her motives for
retiring as “complex”, but privately she is said to have complained that the
coalition was seen as a bunch of “homophobic, anti-women, climate-change
deniers”.
Liberal ministers sticking it out are increasingly facing difficult
contests against a resurgent Labor and independent women furious at the
government’s “blokeish” attitudes.
One commentator has dubbed it the revolt of the SPECS — socially
progressive but economically conservative liberals.
This week Health Minister Greg Hunt became the latest member of the cabinet
to see his political future thrown into doubt.
His former party colleague-turned-independent MP Julia Banks announced she
would challenge him at the election, citing “unfinished business” with the
party and railing against the pro-coal government’s failure to tackle climate
change.
The Liberal response oscillated between furious denunciations of
unspeakable treachery and an insistence she cannot possibly win.
– Populist backlash? –
Rather than propelling him along, some analysts believe the rise of the
populist right may have sown the seeds for Morrison’s downfall.
MORE/SSS/0811 hrs
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His short tenure has seen some clouds gathering in Australia’s long-
glittering G20 economy, stirred by Trump’s trade fight with China and jitters
over Brexit.
Morrison has also been plagued by a debilitating battle between traditional
small government liberals and Trump-emboldened supporters of a more hardline
view of liberal politics.
The wounds from their successful ouster last August of centrist former
party leader and prime minister Malcolm Turnbull have festered.
“It was a catastrophic blunder,” said political pundit William Bowe, who
runs a popular blog called The Poll Bludger, pointing to public disdain for
the continued musical chairs in Canberra.
The party’s hard right “got a rush of blood to the head and I think Brexit
and Donald Trump fed into it”, said Bowe.
“Trump and Brexit have shown that populist right-wing programmes work if
they are pursued aggressively and sold by an aggressive spokesperson.”
They sought to get rid of “this ‘milquetoast plutocrat’ Malcolm Turnbull
and put in a tough political fighter, a bomb-thrower”.
The polls and a recent shock by-election win for an independent woman in a
Sydney seat that the party held for decades seemed to show the Liberals badly
misjudged the public mood.
But Morrison, a devout Christian, shows few signs of easing off, continuing
to play to the base and presenting himself as a “fair dinkum” Aussie who you
can have a beer with at a barbecue.
“There is a lot of rehashing of old debates and old culture wars,” said
Kefford. “They want to try to get the base energised.”
It is an unusual and perhaps fateful strategy in a country where compulsory
voting makes turnout — the normal aim of appeals to the base — almost
irrelevant.
In some sections of the Liberal Party the postmortem has already begun. But
Trump and Brexit have shown that conventional wisdom can be wrong.
“The political environment is challenging for the government,” admitted
former Liberal foreign minister Julie Bishop at a speech in Hong Kong.
But she cautioned: “It is likely to become a much closer contest than many
anticipate. My strong advice is do not write us off. That would be a mistake.
Big mistake.”
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