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Kabul control slips, Afghan force losses at record: US watchdog
WASHINGTON, Nov 1, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – Kabul’s control of Afghanistan slipped
in recent months as local security forces suffered record-level casualties
while making minimal or no progress against the Taliban, a US government
watchdog said Thursday.
The latest glimpse into Afghanistan’s security crisis highlights
persistent problems among police and army units who have faced years of
devastating losses, and shows the Taliban’s resilience 17 years after the US-
led invasion.
Numbers provided by Resolute Support, the US-led NATO mission in
Afghanistan, show that during the last quarter, the Afghan government
controlled or influenced 226 of the country’s 407 districts — or 55.5
percent.
According to the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan
Reconstruction (SIGAR), which compiled the data, the figure marks a slight
drop (0.7 percent) over the previous quarter.
It is the lowest level since SIGAR began tracking district control in
November 2015.
Of the remaining districts, SIGAR assessed that 49 were under insurgent
control or influence (12 percent).
The balance — 132 districts — are considered “contested” between the
Kabul government and the Taliban or other insurgent groups.
In terms of the Afghan population itself, Kabul controls or influences
65.2 percent, the same amount as a year ago.
– Insider attack –
General John Nicholson, who is now retired but at the time was head of
Resolute Support, said in November 2017 that the Afghan security forces would
expand control of the population to 80 percent over the next two years.
Bill Roggio, an Afghanistan expert and senior fellow at the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies, told AFP such a scenario is unlikely.
“Barring a dramatic turnaround by Afghan security forces and the US re-
committing itself to improving the security situation, I do not see how that
is possible,” he told AFP.
Roggio, who runs a website called Long War Journal, co-wrote a piece in
which he assessed that more than half the Afghan population now lives outside
of government control.
Underscoring the security weaknesses, powerful police chief General Abdul
Raziq was among three people killed in a brazen insider attack on a high-
level security meeting this month in Kandahar.
The meeting was also attended by General Scott Miller, the top US and NATO
commander in Afghanistan.
He escaped unhurt, but US Brigadier General Jeffrey Smiley was among 13
people wounded in the shooting, which the Taliban said had targeted Miller
and Raziq.
President Donald Trump launched a revamped Afghan plan more than a year
ago that saw the US scrap any timetables for a US pullout and re-commit
thousands more troops to Afghanistan, most of them dedicated to training and
advising local forces.
Data for casualties suffered by Afghan security forces are not available
to the public after Washington last year agreed to Kabul’s request to
classify the numbers.
Before the blackout, according to figures published by SIGAR, there were
more than 5,000 each year.
In its latest report, SIGAR cited Resolute Support as saying this summer’s
toll has been worse than ever.
“From the period of May 1 to the most current data as of October 1, 2018,
the average number of casualties the (Afghan forces) suffered is the greatest
it has ever been during like periods,” Resolute Support said, according to
SIGAR.
Mattis this week said more than 1,000 “Afghan lads” were killed or wounded
just in August and September.
SIGAR added that data show the Afghan forces “made minimal or no progress
in pressuring the Taliban over the quarter.”
The report does however highlight “some successes” in counter-terrorism
operations against the Islamic State group’s affiliate in Afghanistan,
including in August when 250 jihadists surrendered to Afghan security forces
in Jowzjan province.
BSS/AFP/FI/ 1025 hrs