WASHINGTON, Oct 9, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – An upswing in economic risks due to
rising trade tensions and debt levels has prompted the International Monetary
Fund to cut its forecast for world growth for this year and next.
With trade growth set to slow sharply amid a trade war between the United
States and China, the IMF cut its outlook for global GDP by two-tenths to 3.7
percent for 2018 and 2019, according to the quarterly World Economic Outlook
Report issued Monday.
The revised estimates includes a worsening outlook for developing
economies this year and next compared to the July report, as well as
downgrades for the US and China in 2019.
The IMF warns that risks highlighted in previous reports “have become more
pronounced or have partially materialized” in the real world.
The dominant US economy has been shielded from the ill effects so far due
to the stimulus provided through tax cuts and spending policies but that will
wear off by 2020.
Still, the trade disputes sparked by President Donald Trump that have led
to tit-for-tat exchanges of tariffs among major trading partners are
affecting China, other Asian economies and more vulnerable countries like
Argentina and Turkey, along with Brazil.
Growth estimates for the euro area and Britain also was revised down.
The report warned that growth “may have peaked in some major economies.”
– Rising protectionism –
“Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the
potential for upside surprises has receded,” the IMF said.
Rising trade tensions are a key challenge to the world economy as
“protectionist rhetoric increasingly turned into action.”
That includes President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on $250
billion in Chinese goods, as well as on aluminum, steel and other products
worldwide.
The IMF warned the uncertainty caused by the trade disputes “could lead
firms to postpone or forgo capital spending and hence slow down growth in
investment and demand.”
And if it continues, the “escalation of trade tensions to an intensity
that carries systemic risk is a distinct possibility without policy
cooperation.”
Global trade is projected to expand by 4.2 percent this year, six tenths
less than expected in July and nearly a full point lower than the forecast in
April. For next year, trade is seen growing just four percent, a half point
less than the prior forecast.
The IMF outlook already projects global growth will slow to 3.6 percent
during 2022 – 2023.
However, the IMF cautions that it has a “poor track record of predicting
recessions.”
The fund urged governments to focus on policies that can share the
benefits of growth more widely, helping counter the growing mistrust of
institutions, and to avoid “protectionist reactions to structural change.”
And it stressed “cooperative solutions” to help boost continued growth in
trade “remain essential to preserve and extend the global expansion.”
– US, China face challenges –
The IMF forecasts US GDP growth this year of 2.9 percent, slowing to 2.5
percent in 2019 — which is 0.2 points slower than the July estimate — and
to 1.8 percent in 2020.
But the US tax cuts and rising spending that have boosted growth, helping
compensate for the impact of the growing trade conflict, could spark a sudden
“inflation surprise,” and in turn lead to faster-than-expected rise in US
interest rates, according to the fund.
Already the Federal Reserve interest rates hikes are increasing pressure
on emerging market economies by fueling an outflow of capital as investors
seek higher returns, while increasing borrowing costs at the same time.
US stimulus also adds to the “already-unsustainable” debt and deficit that
will undercut future growth, the report warns.
Medium term growth could drop below 1.4 percent.
The trade confrontation weighs on China in particular, where growth is
projected to slow to 6.6 percent this year and 6.2 percent in 2019, a
downgrade of 0.2 points.
However, stimulus measures by Beijing are likely to soften the impact of
the tariffs.
Further out, China’s economy is expected to slow gradually to 5.6 percent
as the government shifts to “a more sustainable growth path” and addresses
financial risks, the IMF said.
BSS/AFP/MR/1100 hrs